The setting could not be more symbolic: a COP in the country that holds the heart of the Amazon, one of the planet’s most vital and life-sustaining ecosystems. But what lessons from last year’s COP can guide us in turning this vision of a collective effort into speedy, measurable action?
Lessons from Baku
Last year’s climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, exposed how far we still have to go to align financial commitments with climate reality. One key outcome was the establishment of a new climate finance target. Developed countries pledged to provide $300 billion a year until 2035 to help developing nations transition to sustainable energy and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Notably, the target is geared towards both mitigation and adaptation measures. It was an important step, but not yet a sufficient one. Scientists have called for at least $1.3 trillion per year to meet real needs. Adding to the disappointment, much of what was promised still takes the form of loans, burdening countries already struggling with debt.
The ‘loss and damage fund’, although recognised, was not firmly embedded in the new climate finance target. Without that, there is no enforceable obligation to help the most climate-harmed nations deal with the climate impacts that can no longer be avoided or adapted to, such as extreme weather events.
Though COP29 delivered only limited progress, developments in carbon markets and renewed national commitments from countries including the United Kingdom, Indonesia, Brazil, and Mexico offer a base for COP30 to build on.
What must happen in Belém
At COP30, the world has an opportunity to demonstrate a commitment to measurable progress. Brazil, as host and president of the talks, has identified COP30 as the “implementation COP”. As such, several key decisions are on the table.
Belém should be a key moment to ramp up ambition around emissions reduction, with a specific focus on the national climate targets (NDCs) that set out emission reduction goals for 2035. Countries are expected to submit these targets, along with reviews of progress towards their 2030 goals. Early assessments show that current plans still do not do enough to meet the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target.
Equally important is adaptation. Further talks on the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) will aim to turn broad commitments into clear, measurable outcomes. Over the past decade, extreme weather events have cost the global economy more than $2 trillion, with the heaviest toll falling on the most vulnerable. Alongside adaptation, the loss and damage agenda must advance to ensure support for those already suffering irreversible harm.
The expected deeper integration of nature into this year’s climate talks is particularly important for Triodos Bank. In recent years, there has been a growing push to more closely coordinate the three Rio conventions (the UNFCCC on climate, the CBD on biodiversity, and the UNCCD on desertification). A coordinated approach would avoid treating interconnected systems as separate issues and to seize opportunities for more integrated policymaking.
This year’s summit is therefore a moment of renewed ambition. The financial sector will play a critical role in translating this ambition into reality. Redirecting global capital flows towards renewable energy and resilient infrastructure is essential to achieving both mitigation and adaptation goals.
A true phase-out of fossil fuels
A major obstacle to successful climate negotiations remains the influence of the fossil fuel industry. Last year, at least 1,770 fossil fuel lobbyists were at the Baku talks, undermining commitments and watering down language on phasing out fossil fuels. It’s worth recalling that 2023 seemed to mark a turning point, with COP28’s final text affirming the need to “transition away” from fossil fuels. Just one year later COP29’s lack of movement on the issue led to accusations of "backsliding." Furthermore, talking about limiting greenhouse gasses, without making agreements about its main drivers, is like trying to mop up water while the tap is still running.
Hopeful in that sense is the momentum that is building behind the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty (FFNPT), a process running in parallel with the official UN climate process. Triodos Bank has long been a proponent of this growing international initiative, calling for a coordinated global phase-out of coal, oil, and gas. A major recent breakthrough for the treaty came with Colombia’s recent announcement of the first International Fossil Fuel Phase-Out Conference to be held in 2026. Colombia is the first country in the world to host such a global dialogue under the FFNPT banner. Their leadership demonstrates how a fossil fuel-producing nation can recognise the need for a managed, just transition away from extraction.
The financial sector’s role
As always, Triodos Bank does not underestimate the significant influence of the global financial sector in ensuring both a successful COP and a successful climate transition. Many institutions highlight their investments in renewable energy as proof of their sustainability strategies, while at the same time undermining themselves by providing large-scale financing of oil, gas and coal projects, therefore continuing to finance the industries that cause climate disruption and increasing systemic risk.
Findings from the TPI Centre’s State of the Banking Transition 2025 report further highlight this need for genuine progress: of 36 major global banks assessed, most had especially weak performance on their decarbonisation strategy. Most banks have set short-term sectoral targets, but only a third of their pathways are aligned with the 1.5°C or below 2°C benchmarks, and coverage beyond 2030 or across high-emission sectors remains limited.
The recent collapse of ambition at the Net-Zero Banking Alliance underlines the urgency to align loans and investments portfolios with the 1.5°C global warming scenario. Triodos Bank believes that our industry must end the contradictions of financing both fossil fuels and renewables at the same time. While some alliances lose momentum, the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) remains a credible, science-driven framework that the sector can still align with to ensure genuine progress toward 1.5°C. Together with our partners, such as the Global Alliance for Banking on Values (GABV) and the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty initiative, we will continue to champion a financial system that supports real transformation rather than incremental change.
As the world turns its attention to Belém, we will be closely watching how commitments translate into action and sharing further insights as this critical moment for climate unfolds.
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